🔗 Share this article

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.